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MARKET UPDATE

ONCE AGAIN: THE FED DOESN’T SET MORTGAGE RATES!
While this newsletter series has said it many times before and in many different ways, it bears repeating (and perhaps some extra emphasis this time around): THE FED DOESN’T SET MORTGAGE RATES.
There are 3 key ways to understand the paradox.

1. The Fed Rate is a Battleship in a River The Fed meets to MAYBE change its rate only 8 times a year, barring emergencies. Mortgage-backed bonds and Treasuries, on the other hand, can change thousands
   of times a day. Mortgage lenders update rate sheets at least once every business day. Bottom line, mortgages react to the Fed rate cut before it ever happens, but even then, a Fed cut might not convince mortgage rates to move lower due to the other 2 factors.
2. The Fed Rate is a Different Animal Compared to Mortgage Rates The Fed Funds Rate applies to loans with a term of up to 1 day (essentially last minute money shuffling between banks in order to ensure everyone has the money they need for the day if the previous day happened to create an imbalance). Mortgages, of course, can be loans of up to 30 years. Quite simply, investor preferences can vary greatly depending on the duration of a loan. If you’ve heard about the inverted yield curve, that’s a quintessential example of shifting investor preferences between longer and shorter term debt. It doesn’t get any shorter than the Fed Funds Rate nor much longer than mortgage rates. Consequently, they move in opposite directions all the time.
3. Fed Policy is About Much More Than The Rate Itself
   The Fed Funds Rate is only one of the aspects of the Fed’s monitor policy communication. Markets care
   about it, but again, they usually know what it’s going to be ahead of time. Even then, markets typically
   care much more about how the rate will move in the future. To that end, the Fed’s forecasts have
   consistently had an immediate impact on the entire interest rate landscape. These forecasts are NOT
   known ahead of time, so there’s an actual surprise factor on Fed day. In this week’s case, the Fed saw
   rates staying a bit higher than the market expected. Thus, mortgage rates and Treasuries edged a bit
   higher in the short term.